Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Radio Show: Investment Implications of the ACA

On July 30, I participated in 2 radio shows on the URBusinessnetwork.  I know the host, Ray Rondeau, from AAII (American Association of Individual Investors).  These shows were recently posted to the web.  The second show on financial planning is discussed later on this blog. The entire first show which is on the Investment Implications of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) can be listened to at:
http://urbusinessnetwork.com/obama-affordable-care-act/

The introductory writeup to the first show includes a summary and bio for both shows. This link will take you directly to the broadcast http://tinyurl.com/marketmavens073014ACA

In the first part of the show, I gave some bio info, an overview of the ACA, some of the myths, some of the latest successes and failures, and related ideas.  This section can be found at http://tinyurl.com/ACAradiointro

In the second section of that first show, I discussed the investment implications of the ACA.  I will cover this portion in more depth below as I did not have time to discuss all the market sectors that I had in mind.  Here is what I said or planned to say.



Investment Highlights


S+P health care index up 9.7% this year thru 6/30, vs s+p 500 by 3.6% 

Several billionaire investors have invested in drug stocks, and dialysis companies


Excellent article in WashPost – 7/3/14 Jonelle Marte



Cautionary note: Each investor needs to do their own analysis.  The following companies have the potential to do well.   
  •          Health Care Mutual Funds and ETFs

  •          Health insurance companies

United, Aetna, Cigna, Wellpoint  


United is entering many more state markets in 2015.  In the radio show, Rondeau discusses technical aspects of this stock.

  •          Enrollment systems

Deloiite – successfully built Connecticut and Kentucky’s systems.


  •          Electronic Health Records (EHRs)

Cerner, Epic systems, Allscripts, Athenahealth, Nextgen, GE

More EHR standards are being developed which will increase the use of EHR systems.

  • ·          Drugs

Barron’s 7/22 issue has a very positive article on 9 drug stocks.


Here are 3: Merck,  Gilead Sciences, Amgen


In the radio show, Rondeau discusses technical aspects of Gilead stock.Very positive. 

Other stocks mentioned in Barron's are Roche, Vertex, Astrazeneca,



-------------------------------

This section was not discussed on radio show due to time limitations

  •        Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs)


                 Caremark, Express Scripts


  •          Retail pharmacies

CVS, Walgreens. Both have retail clinics. 

  •          Shopping tools: Castlight


  •          Telehealth

No specific stocks mentioned

  •          Medical supplies

Bastion, Covider, Johnson and Johnson
  •  Medical Devices  
Medtronics, Illumina, Edward Lifesciences 
  •        For Profit Hospitals

No specific stocks mentioned


  •          Physician Hospital Organizations

No specific stocks mentioned


  •          Home Health Agencies

 Chemed , Almost Family, LHC Group, Lincare holdings, Amedisys, Gentiva Health Services


  •          Nursing Homes

Manor Care , Golden living, HCP, Beverly Enterprises, Mariner Health, Kindred Healthcare

  •         Accountable Care Organizations

Hopkins (not a stock)


  •          Urgent Care

Concentra


  •         Post acute care organizations

No specific stocks mentioned


  •          Dialysis

 Davita, Fresnius
-----------------------------
Here is a link to the second radio show which covered financial planning, asset allocation, limitations in target date funds, and the need for basic investment courses (investment 101). 

http://tinyurl.com/marketmaven073014keyinvestment 

This is the background info I provided for the second show


  • Became a serious investor 32 years ago and developed my first financial plan
  • Became a member of AAII in 1998

  • DC Metro Chapter:  Past president and Program Co-chair for past 10 years

  • With National AAII organization: Lead for chapter leaders committee

Relevant Websites: aaii.com  and aaiidcmetro.com





Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Friday, September 5, 2014

How People Feel About Their Employer-Sponsored Health Plans +

How People Feel About Their Employer-Sponsored Health Plans

A Perilous Gap In Health Insurance Literacy
Some important findings.

Part-Time Jobs Are Increasing. But Don’t Blame Obamacare – Yet.

The War on Obamacare has Become a War on Minorities and the Poor 

USING MEDICARE PAYMENT AS A GUIDE TO CURB COST
The 125 percent solution for American health care
 


Little Evidence of the ACA Increasing Part-Time Work So Far  While the report makes a good case, I am not convinced since I heard or read quite a few companies who reduced hours for workers citing the ACA.  Perhaps they were planning to do this anyway and blamed the ACA unfairly.  Hard to know.   

Accountable Care States: The Future of Health Care Cost Control 
This paper by some leading health economists argues that we are unlikely to make a significant dent in further controlling costs at the national level and should therefore turn it over to states to enact cost controls.  Some states are already doing this.  While there is merit to this position, not convinced that we cannot do it at the national level.  We have already made some inroads by enacting the ACA with health exchanges, and creating ACOs.  

Average Exchange Premiums Show Slight Decline In 2015: Report